Francisco Alvarez - Macks Mets
"COULD FRANCISCO ALVAREZ BE ON A JUAN SOTO TIME SCHEDULE?"
I think the short answer to that question is:
"Most likely no."
Juan Soto Wikipedia
After all, VERY few players these days play almost an entire season at age 19 like Juan Soto did.
Dwight Gooden did, for sure.
Otherwise, it's really rare.
Soto deserved it. He may be a bit immature at times, but he is simply great. Scary good for his age.
Anyway...in the beginning:
At age 17, Soto was like a ball of fire in rookie ball.
Mostly in the GCL, but with a late bump up to the next level; in 51 games, Soto went a tremendous .368/.420/.553.
At age 17, in 2019, Francisco Alvarez did very well...
but not quite as well as Soto did, in rookie ball:
Mostly in the GCL, but with a late bump up to the next level, in 42 games, Alvarez went a very fine .312/.407/.510.
But there is a fairly big gap between the two statistical results, between "tremendous" and just "very fine", so that kills my far-fetched "Alvarez-on-the-Mets-at-19" idea, right?
Well......Not so fast.
At age 18, you see, Soto played just 32 games and had 111 (admittedly great) at bats.
He got to the majors early the next year despite missing all that "age 18" time.
He got to the majors early the next year despite missing all that "age 18" time.
At age 18, Francisco Alvarez could play not Soto's mere 32 games, but 100 or more games in full season A ball, getting promoted to AA at some point in the season, if he is really that talented. Play a lot more, improve faster.
After a long and successful 2020, a short stint in AAA in spring 2021 could potentially have him at Citifield for most of 2021, at...the age of 19.
So I may be the only one even thinking this way, but I am not ruling an "Alvarez at Citifield in 2021" scenario just yet - although it clearly remains unlikely.
As being a catcher involves more than just how one hits, I will note that Alvarez seems to have normal tightening up to do defensively, as any 17 year old catcher would.
At 17, he there out 29% of base runners, certainly an OK number, but he also allowed 15 passed balls in just 27 games at catcher! That number would have to drop a lot.
Still, a full season in 2020, at age 18, playing over 100 games and having him catch 80 or more games, would give him plenty of time to significantly improve behind the dish.
Throw in some winter ball, and voila!
Throw in some winter ball, and voila!
Alvarez in Queens in 2021, anyone?
If anyone can make it in 2021 in Queens, he can.
If anyone can make it in 2021 in Queens, he can.
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